This is a part of what I hope could be a series of speculations about the Dota 2 competitive scene: I won't probably post them regularly (actually, posting this is already a thing I didn't think I would have done) but I'll try to keep up the series as much as possible, if you like it.
So, let's start. After watching different competitive games and seeing how the meta has changed in the past month or two (especially after the 6.79 patch), I'm wondering why some Heroes didn't get considered at all: we saw
Hand of Midas on supports, a huge amount of
Elder Titan picks for a (relatively) small amount of time, the fall of
Batrider and
Io and, also, the rebirth of
Luna. Many Heroes including
Bristleback,
Mirana and
Slark became the trend of this period, but some others with (in my opinion) big potential just passed through the patch - some of them even untouched - without seeing any increase in their pick ratio.
The first Hero I want to talk about is
Centaur Warrunner . I'm pretty sure you all got pubstomped by him in the past, probably more than once, and after all this time wondering about the role he could fit in a match an idea popped out in my head: he can effectively
solo the off-lane. Think about it: he's like a mix between
Clockwerk and
Bristleback, in some ways. Like Rattletrap he can't get out alive from a chainstun but, if used at the right moment, his defensive mechanism (
Power Cogs, its counterpart being
Hoof Stomp) lets him run away safely from the enemy trilane. And, like Bristleback, he has a built-in ability that discourage the enemies from attacking him (
Bristleback and
Return, respectively); he also shares with both of them the STR attribute and is probably even more survivable than the two. His ultimate,
Stampede, is also a key ability for initiating fights and escaping smoke ganks, even more than
Mirana's
Moonlight Shadow! I'll draft him in my next CM matches no doubt.
The next one, as I've already talked/complained about in a forum thread, is
Ogre Magi: his potential is huge, he also has the second highest stat growth (after
Sniper) and, being a tanky INT support, neither has problems with mana after his
Arcane Boots nor has to adjust his item build for survivability purposes. Let's take a look at his skills:
Fireblast is an average stun that, unlike many others, has a
huge range and a fixed stun duration (1.5, pretty good at level 1!);
Ignite is a damage-over-time AoE spell (if you got at least one point in the ultimate) that doesn't look so useful but, as it slows for a decent amount of time (26% at level 4 makes the difference in fights), can discourage pushes/ganks and also ensure your team's ganks. Lastly,
Bloodlust looks like a
really good spell to me: in this meta where racecar builds are common, being able to outrun your chasers (or reach max movement speed with them in your team) and give a damage steroid to non-AGI carries like Outworld Devourer,
Lifestealer and
Doom is priceless. His ultmate is what makes him kind of a bad pick: the concept of Heroes that rely on luck is really a bad one in my opinion, especially if some extra luck can change the fate of a teamfight
that hard (a multicast does win teamfights, conversely to an extra second of the
Chaos Bolt or a lucky Critical Strike); the fact that he's melee doesn't simplify things either. Nonetheless, I think
Ogre Magi still has a lot of potential.
Lastly, believe it or not, there's one of the most underrated supports (no, it's not
Witch Doctor):
Dazzle. I say "underrated" while looking at the competitive scene, because "healers" like Dazzle and WD are pretty common in pubs; the main difference with the other supports of this kind, though, is that Dazzle actually
manipulates armor. This is so key for two things: winning fights versus 2/3 core lineups and killing Roshan; the latter can also lead to early attempts of what is called "rat Dota" which, even though is not fun to watch, is an easy way to win. About teamfights, casting
Weave on the enemies right before pushing a tower is
really scary; if they decide to go in anyway they're gonna need more luck than that
Ogre Magi above. Combining
Dazzle's
Poison Touch with common abilities reliant on physical damage like
Unstable Concoction or
Vendetta make this Hero have a relevant impact in the ganking phase, too.
Shallow Grave is also a really good spell if used correctly, especially with a multi-core lineup: while the #1 carry always has enough time to afford a
Black King Bar, a
Nature's Prophet or
Bristleback might not; that's when this spell comes in action and (hopefully) saves them.
Those are well-rounded Heroes that for some reason are overlooked by people (well, I can understand
Ogre Magi at the very least), but I don't think they have to share the same fate of objectively "useless" Heroes like
Sniper or
Witch Doctor: I can already picture someone using
Dazzle as a signature Hero like Aui_2000's
Visage or KuroKy's
Rubick and having good results.
Sorry for the "bad" formatting but I didn't really have time to plan this as it came out of my mind just recently. D:
Also, CM has dropped off a bit because she doesn't have good pushing power: Ogre Magi, on the contary, has Ignite and Bloodlust that help with early-mid pushes. He still has little teamfight presence, but you don't necessarily need to have two supports focused on teamfights (e.g. Visage and Shadow Demon don't help that much either) if you're granted a setup for lane combos ( Sacred Arrow, Split Earth...) and a buff up for your carry. I'd pick him for aggressive trilanes since he's very resistant and has a stun with a decent range.
I think maybe Ogre Magi will make an appearance at some point, but I still think he has a perception problem, lacks some team fight midgame and is somewhat niche. Even after the buff he's still somewhat reliant on Multi Cast for team fight damage with Ignite (even if it can do awesome damage in this situation). I tend to pick him up when I want that dual stun/slow but am worried about enemy nukers/gankers so don't want to pick CM.
CM still has the advantage of her aura, AOE damage potential and jungling ability. Ogre's is mainly that he's much harder to bring down, and offers buffs to your carry.
Maybe he needs a little bit more again - I'd think either a slight buff to his movement speed and some scaling on his stun (+5/10 base movement, 1.5/1.6/1.7/1.8 on his stun time), or adding an active component to Multi Cast, say for 150-200 mana you're guaranteed at least a double cast on his spells for 5 seconds. Replacing Unrefined Fireblast on Aghanim's Scepter with something useful would also help his rep considerably, it's one of the worst upgrades.
The other really important thing with Ogre is just how much base armour he has: nearly 6, equal to about 26% damage reduction vs physical, by level 5 he has over double CM's EHP. Even as a 5 you shouldn't be expecting to die as much unless you're making very risky plays. Certainly you're much more difficult to take down.
But yes, CM definitely has distinct advantages in some cases - and I agree with all of your points there. I'm sticking up for Ogre Magi mainly because I think he's often misunderstood and written off. He's not a straight forward replacement for CM in all situations (there's various ones she handles much better), and he also falls into the melee support trap. (reduced laning options...plus should I just go Sand King or Earthshaker?)
Yes, he does need Arcane Boots sooner or later, but his stat gain is actually pretty good and his spell costs are very cheap until you begin levelling Multi Cast, which you can easily delay until level 9 or 10 if you're very short on farm. That stat gain also means you don't really need a Bracer or Urn of Shadows to bulk you out like most int supports. I can run Ogre Magi quite happily off Boots of Speed, Magic Stick and an Orb of Venom (925 gold) for quite a while!
Ogre Magi does have a lot of perks that give his team more than a Crystal Maiden could in those aspects, but take note that:
- Crystal Maiden can jungle from level one with Frostbite, giving her team more flexibility in laning and potentially more net EXP and gold, yet is still powerful in lane. Also counters Chen and Enchantress via Frostbite, two of the best heroes as of now.
- Frostbite has 3 seconds guaranteed at level 4, while Fireblast has 1.5 guaranteed. The latter has a much better cooldown from level 11, but it really requires mana to spam, which is difficult if we're assuming that both are going to be played as a #5, because it's hard to grab Arcane Boots while buying a lot of stuff and dying a fair amount (assuming that it's a balanced game with both teams preforming equally as well). Crystal Maiden can stick with Tranquil Boots and be completely ok.
- Crystal Nova is AOE from level 1.
I like CM more, but I guess this is just personal preference. Arcane Aura is meh-ish btw, sometimes I don't even take that one level until level 9.
I agree on the other parts though. Will try drafting ogre for my friend on our next team match.
I think maybe we'll see some "situational" pickups for him - as Xyrus said, maybe with heroes like Weaver and obviously, Huskar. Heroes who really benefit from a few extra seconds of life a vital moment that may well switch things. Also, maybe on teams setup with physical damage spells and other armour reducers - Death Prophet, Juggernaut, Witch Doctor, Medusa, Shadow Fiend, Slardar, Vengeful Spirit, Alchemist etc.
From now on I'll be waiting for a team to pick Dazzle and Huskar and, suddenly, getting counterpicked with an Axe. That would make tournament games way more exciting :D
Dazzle is not a very good hero, but he SHOULD be a more common pick because he does so well with and against the current meta. In this meta, Bristleback and Alchemist are top picks. A lot of team focus on physical damage through armor reduction and early aggression in general. Dazzle completely counters reduction with his ult, and when he is used with the meta heroes he adds even more reduction.
Ogre Magi is a hero I hate, being luck dependent is bad. And he's melee.
You exactly understood my reasoning behind Dazzle: not a good Hero if considered singularly (but he still has some utility, huh), but really strong when combined with good - and popular - Heroes. I didn't really think about him being a counter to them too, but it makes a lot of sense.
As for Ogre Magi, I agree with it (I said the same thing about luck after all). But I still think he's too overlooked.
EDIT: that ninja-post by Sando, that's what I meant! Particularly, notice how Ogre Magi's base damage is significantly better (20 damage more!) than Crystal Maiden's: autoattacking shouldn't be Ogre Magi's main priority, but it does help in ganking and compensates his lack of jungling abilities. Bloodlust is usually enough to get some more attack speed and kill some jungle creeps in the downtime, especially with an Urn of Shadows.
Ogre vs CM
Round 1: Stats
Str: 23 (+3.2) vs 16 (+1.7) OGRE WINS
Agi: 14 (+1.55) vs 16 (+1.6) CM WINS
Int: 17 (+2.4) vs 19 (+2.9) CM WINS
Base Armour: 5.96 vs 1.24 OGRE WINS
Base Move: 295 vs 280 OGRE WINS
Base Damage: 58-64 vs 38-44 OGRE WINS
Range: Melee vs 600 CM WINS
Round 2: Stun
Fireblast vs Frostbite
Both 1.5 second stun at level 1, neither can be dodged directly, however blast prevents casting, while bite has a longer duration (3s) at higher levels.
Blast has a slightly longer range (600 vs 500).
Bite has a slightly faster initial cooldown (10s compared to 12s), however Blast is eventually reduced to 6s.
Blast is cheaper (75-215 mana) initially, while is more expensive once Multi Cast is heavily levelled, obviously this could lead to more damage/stuntime. Intel growth and Arcane Aura also a factor here.
Damage: Blast = 80/145/210/275 (poss x2, x3, x4), Bite = 105/140/175/210. Bite can be used for more damage agaisnt creeps.
Round 3: AOE Slow
Crystal Nova has bigger AOE until level 16, immediate effect, causes attack slow and slightly stronger movement slow.
Ignite relies on Multi Cast for AOE, longer movement slow time, lower mana cost.
Damage: 130/254/296/400 vs 100/150/200/250
Round 4: Team Utility
CM has Arcane Aura and Freezing Field, reduced mana regeneration dependency for team and herself. Channelled damaging ult that is potentially strong but difficult to use without additional equipment.
Ogre provides Bloodlust, providing additional movement and attack speed to allies.
Lot to look at there - my 2c is that Ogre is a better roamer/ganker, gives more late game. Better survivability makes him a harder pick off for the other team. Suits aggressive teams, ranged or snowbally carries.
CM offers a pretty weak ranged attack, but at least you have the option and can try for denies/lane control without having to compromise your position so much. Arcane Aura is obviously a big plus for some teams...but how much does that +1 mana/sec sometimes matter? You don't tend to level it until level 3, and then max it last on most builds. Freezing Field can be really effective if you have good disables, nice for faster midgame rosh attempts...but is expensive and liable to get you insta-stunned or killed.
As you can see, I've not even mentioned relying on multiple casts... Ogre Magi should basically be played without thinking about it - his nukes are good and frequent enough to secure kills with team mates like any other support. Occasionally you'll knock somebody's head off with a multi, but that's just a bonus.
Ogre Magi is a hero I hate, being luck dependent is bad. And he's melee.
I was asking myself the exact same things until yesterday and my answer, as you can read above, is the offlane: enough farm to let you get your core and yet not between the 2 most farming-dependent Heroes in your team. He actually has many benefits compared to Magnus, one being the anti-gank and initiating ability Stampede (I, for example, compared it to Moonlight Shadow) and the other being a stun with a low cooldown. He suffers a bit against BKB-heavy lineups, but picking off supports with a Blink Dagger isn't difficult for him.
Y'see I think Magnus actually makes a reasonable offlaner too (obviously he's potentially better mid, but that's a more competitive lane). Starting strength is 23 compared to 25, strength gain is about 1 per level less, so over the first 6-7 levels you're not really giving away very much there. They're about equal in terms of farming requirements (Upgraded Boots, Blinks, bit of stats/utility).
Ok, you lose the small damage reflection, but I don't think that's massively helpful anyway unless you can somehow pressure their health in other ways. They'll likely both run a Stout Shield offlane anyway. You lose the early game stun, which is important, but it's difficult to land anyway without a setup or Blink Dagger. Stampede is useful for anti-gank I agree, and is a reasonable initiation and escape spell...but I know which ultimate I'd rather have for most fights!
On the flip side:
- Magnus has a cheap AOE nuke for long range farming
- Can super charge your carry for both farming and fighting
- Skewer provides a proper escape
- Reverse Polarity vs Stampede...?
About Dazzle, I understand why you aren't really sure about him but still, since his strength is armor reduction, he scales better into late game than, say, Crystal Maiden (not entirely true but you get the point) or Lina. Shallow Grave prevents your #2 carry from spending 3975 gold on a Black King Bar and makes the opposition concentrate on an already-dead Hero giving precious seconds to your team; Poison Touch is, in my opinion, even stronger than Telekinesis or Frostbite if used on the right Hero and at the right moment (for example, not on a blinking Ursa since he will have enough time to kill you). I'd really love to see him more whether people like him or not.
Don't get me wrong, I like Dazzle a lot, but I do understand why he doesn't feature much in competitive games. Still kinda level dependent compared to similar supports, missing some early killing power too. Ultimate can be very good or barely useful depending on situation. Pushing skill only really works properly for certain kinds of push (i.e. not great vs strong anti-push nukes).
I think maybe we'll see some "situational" pickups for him - as Xyrus said, maybe with heroes like Weaver and obviously, Huskar. Heroes who really benefit from a few extra seconds of life a vital moment that may well switch things. Also, maybe on teams setup with physical damage spells and other armour reducers - Death Prophet, Juggernaut, Witch Doctor, Medusa, Shadow Fiend, Slardar, Vengeful Spirit, Alchemist etc.
And about Ogre Magi, that "bad" (and with bad I mean too luck-dependent) ultimate isn't really good for the late game: a 275 damage nuke is good at all stages, but only if you can follow up with something else. That's what this Hero lacks: an extra nuke that deals good damage; he has Ignite and Bloodlust to make up for it, and they're probably even better, but I think that's the main reason why people prefer Lina, Rubick or Leshrac.
I think that's a little unfair on Ignite - we're talking about a spell that does 130/204/296/400 damage over 5-8 seconds (probably with definite AOE effect) as well as a consistent slow. The only issue with that is the length of time required to inflict the damage. But yeah, Bloodlust is his only lategame spell really. I still think he offers more in the lategame than the likes of CM though - much tougher, harder hitting with a nice buff for allies.
When I draft I like to run centaur and ogre, not dazzle tho.
I like centaur as a mid better than offlane tho.
I tried to play mid Centaur sometimes, it's good but many mids offer more than him: Puck can initiate better, Dragon Knight can split push better and Storm Spirit is better in ganks. Giving him the second highest priority for farm is good, but he doesn't benefit from it as much as the Heroes listed above; on the contrary, off-lane Centaur is arguably as good as Bristleback (if not better) and a decent subsitute to Clockwerk if he gets banned.
I like centaur as a mid better than offlane tho.