The draft analysation thread.

Since that thread asking which draft is better was getting completely hyjacked i figured id make a separate thread.

You can post a draft here and we will look at it and determine which side most likely is going to win.
haha, i did another one, drafing is addictive.
http://dota2draft.the-cluster.org/show?op=r&fp=r&pick=ZT0Zu2ZG1Zp2O2m2c2Zv2ZJ0ZC1&ban=ZOZSMgzaZDZXqZbB
i am radiant once again

im less sure about this one but i think i can manage the tiny wisp. all of my heroes either have escapes(clinkz's is more about the speed then the invis) and lich can throw the chain frost.

but once again they go agressive. jeez they have some anger issues. i have the lich on my side so that should keep them pretty low level. i really think they should be safelaning to secure them the levels that they REALLY need.

i have no idea how dark seer fares against DP. but he should do his usual thing and farm up. invoker against timbersaw, havent played or seen this matchup also. timber should be reasonably fine but he cant kill him probably becouse of cold snap. with bottle regen his regen should be ok though.

clinkz is pretty good against tiny and wisp, since he doesnt care about craggy and does a lot of damage to him especially before AC, and well wisp is really squishy.
frost armor should also be pretty good this game.

he wasted his last ban though and i dont know if death prophet really fits in his lineup?

analyzing stuff like this also is quite addictive^^

i also think that you shouldnt have that much trouble against tiny+wisp relocates...jakrio and lich could face some difficulties if they dont retreat immediately, but the rest should be fine.

invoker vs timber: rly, rly though one....cant recall to have seen this before....but id give the advantage to invoker. Forge Spirits and Coldsnap could turn out to be a problem for Timber, but Invoker could also be bursted down fairly easy under the right circumstances.

As for the toplane, i think that Darkseer ***** all over DP....she cant possibly bring him down with just Crypt Swarm while DS' Ion Shell would force her to constantly farm under her tower....which Krobelus usually isnt that good at (at least at low levels). Also later on in the game Jakiro + Dark Seer is such a nice combo (one of my favorites if i may add).

The trilanes seem kind of weird tbh.... Dires burst is just insane but on the other hand clinkz shouldnt really have problem farming up, thanks to Sacrifice .... which also makes ganking (or out-of-position pickoffs) pretty hard for the dire. I dont understand though, why you said that tinys passive wouldnt be an issue for clinkz....i personally think its extremely annoying if i play clinkz and am up against a tiny.

Dires push sure is strong, but you have very good wave-clearing and can punish long sieges very hard. Also your teamfight is better imo. I think that the whole outcome of this game is dependent on the laning stage. If clinkz manages to get his orchids between the 15-20 minute mark, the whole dire team will loose all their momentum, as any aggressive play can really cost them. On the other hand however, clinkz also has to be aware of Relocate while trying to gank..... a Tough matchup.

To me its a question of who manages to snowball more effectively...Tiny or Clinkz and is therefor, once more, an even draft.

Craggy only works when clinkz is attacking in 300 range.

i dont want this to get too caotic if every1 just posts their draft...but since this is my first "competitive" draft, i would want it to be analyzed properly, so i can learn the kind of things to look out for :3

http://dota2draft.the-cluster.org/show?op=r&fp=r&pick=ZO1Zt1g2B1F0ZX2E1N3G0Zd1&ban=ZbMZMDZrjZTqxw

Edit: guess there also should be some kind of explanation.

since i had firstpick i went straight for visage, as he is such a versatile and strong hero in general. As the opponent went for CM + Bristle i kinda didnt know how the opponent would want to lane them (either as dual or bristle solo) and therefor didnt want to reveal my carry and Offlaner right away. Therefor i went for bane, as he can has both, offensive and defensive properties.

After i saw the enchantress pick i was pretty sure, that he would go for a Bristle + CM dual lane and so i picked up a gyro to complement my trilane and a clock for offlane - i thought that clock would be a good pickup vs his team so far, as it was rather easy to gank at this point. My final pick was Puck.... i guess he synergizes very well with the rest of the team (easy Call Down and Familiar stuns) and the silence would come in handy vs the dire team.

Trilane was sent top ofc, as it can deal with a jungeling enchantress pretty easy and to shut down his dual lane (which surprisingly was Doom + CM). Puck was sent middle ofc and clock solo safelane vs the enemy offlaner (bristelback), which i think he should fare pretty nicely against.

@seekheart. I think radiant has the upper hand mostly becouse queen of pain will probably shredd weaver in lane. Weaver cannit man up against her at all becouse he cannot take scream with his low health pool. They also have plenty of burst to kill him. And if QoP gets an early orchid which should be most of the time against solo weaver, the dire is goin to have a serious problem. She does need a BKB to deal with the disruptor but apart from that i dont think the disruptor is a strong pick this game.
The dire does most likely have sun strike going for them to help the trilane but i still think radiant is a bit more allround.


@l0bstz0r. Why dont you post the draft that you made against me? ;_;
I think the doom lane is a bit weak so you should have a good time against that. Mid is also decent but puck does have to fear the enchantress and her creeps coming to gank, since electric vortex is a really good setup.

Bottom lane should be even, kills might happen and bristle should pull ahead as soon as he hits 6, but at time clock should also have 6 and that is all he wants.

You can deal with the anchantress since gyro can kill her by attacking indirectly with flak, and nuking with barrage.
Storm is pretty good against gyro but he really cant overextend with puck silence and fiends grip waiting for him.
I would bet on radiant.

Seekheart Draft:

Equal. Pretty dangerous picks from both sides - a lot will depend on how those early lane clashes work out, as both teams are mostly squishy with a lot of potential nuke damage. It'll really depend who makes the first big play or big mistake in each lane. I'd say teamfight looks about equal, radiant has more late game carry, but I think it'll all be pretty much decided by early/midgame.

Lobstz0rs Draft:

Advantage Radiant. That trilane will rip the other apart I think, they'll get freefarm until Enchantress gets a level or two and comes to join in. Even then they have a big advantage that Dire will have to play really play well to circumvent. Puck does pretty well in mid vs Storm Spirit, slight advantage. Clockwerk vs Bristleback, slight advantage to Bristle, but Clock should be fine for some farm/xp and shouldn't get killed. Difficult to see how Dire can win this without playing out of their skin.

...and now no one will look at my thread anymore T-T

Oh well, nice to see I've started a a fad of analyzing drafts <}3


I think the Tiny+ Io combo was a bit premature, insta picking a Hard Carry like that in the 1st Picking Phase makes it too easy to see your game plan (although I admit, I wouldn't expect them to go Aggressive with it)

Agreed, Lion can be an effective Harrasser, but you want him and Io to get their lvl6s as fast as possible, perhaps having a less level dependant Support would have been better here, since you can only really give priority to one Support getting lvl6.

Honestly, I don't see why Death Prophet would go Safe Lane, she's fairly Bottle dependant thanks to her 1st Skill, and has the Movement Speed needed for Rune Control with Witchcraft, whereas Invoker doesn't need a Bottle and is going to want to secure his lvls rather than grabbing Runes or Ganking, making him an ideal Safe Laner. I can only think he was trying to dodge having to Lane Invoker against a Dark Seer.

Well, anyone with a BKB doesn't care about Craggy, but if he isn't shut down completely, then Tiny will eventually Carry them to victory. Early on Clinkz is gonna walk all over Tiny, but after Aghanim's Scepter and Black King Bar that will start to change.

Between Death Prophet, Invoker and Tiny they have a ton of Burst Damage and Pushing power, although I feel having a less greedy Safe Laner would be better, although Slark is banned. Perhaps a Bottle-Crowing Nightstalker? Having a 5-8 second silence to use against Clinkz would be pretty handy, but then again, whatever he picked, he'd have to Solo against either a Timbersaw or a Dark Seer.

In conclusion, I would say Radiant's Draft is strongest before about 25:00, but if you don't win fast, Dire will inevitably become uncontrollable with their Massive Burst Damage and Pushing potential. Radiant should win their Lanes easily enough though, so I'll favour them.

i think you could say that i crushed this draft XD
http://dota2draft.the-cluster.org/show?op=r&fp=r&pick=Zb2E1ZO1G0Zc1Zl1ZT0M3Zd2v1&ban=zaZtSjFZMmyZeZG

Well, getting a Defensive Support as well as "the 18 minute Tower man" is nice, it keeps your options open while giving you a strong Early Game, but personally, I would wait before picking Pugna, as once you pick him, you pretty much have to Push early on. I'm not a fan of picking 2 Supports in the first stage either, but at least you have no idea what their strategy is, but you know that these Supports are going to give a strong lane, and since Crystal Maiden is fairly level independant, Dire can focus on getting Disruptor his lvl6.

Advantage:Dire




These bans...confuse me...except for the Tinker ban. Was Radiant not aware that Dire already had 2 Supports, or is Disruptor Mid one of Dire's signature Heroes? Why would Phantom Lancer be banned?

Advantage:WTF?!!! D{8

...moving on...I like the Lina pickup, it matches so well with Shadow Demon, Radiant now has a good mixture of Offensive and Defensive Supporting to make one hell of a Ganking Combo. The Queen of Pain pickup makes me worry a bit though. Radiant now has 4 Intelligence Heroes and they're all quite Squishy. It fits in with the Aggressive Early Game Radiant seem to be going for, but it also pidgeon-holes them into "win by 25:00 or lose by default".

The Weaver and Invoker pickup on Dire however is a lot harder to pin down in terms of Lanes, and a Tornado will nicely setup a Kinetic Field meaning instant annihilation if Radiant are too careless while pushing. This is exactly what Dire wants, since Radiant are clearly going to lose out in Carry potential and Teamfight later on in the game. The Weaver however, is quite easy to Burst down by Radiant, so perhaps a different Core could have been picked up instead, one that can stand against the Burst Damage and punish Pushers, but since he was picked before Lina and Queen of Pain, it certainly makes sense to get him at that stage. The Swarm can easily drive Radiant nuts by stopping the Creep Wave under the Tower.

Advantage:Dire





I can't understand Silencer ban, it's obvious that Radiant need a Tank and I don't see how Silencer threatens Dire in any way other than being annoying to Lane against. The Juggernaut ban is the same, it would work well with Dire, but they also needed HP at this point.

The Alchemist pick was a smart one, he can Farm up quick Items to get into the fray faster, or if his Team is doing well, he can Farm up faster than anything Radiant can pick at this point, and out-Carry them in the Mid-Game, when Pugna starts to lose effectiveness. I know Alchemist isn't seen much as a Carry these days, but his flexibility with Items and potential Farming speed make him an excellent choice here.

The Luna pick seems really weird to me, whether it be for an Aggressive Tri-lane, or a Suicide Lane, Radiant desperately needed something Tanky, and there was a Bristleback in the pool. This would have made for a strong Offlane, whether Solo, or Aggressive. I don't see the Luna out-carrying a Safe Lane Alchemist who can easily zone her out and Farm to his heart's content with early levels in Acid Spray, combine Unstable Concotion with Glimpse or Frostbite + Kinetic Field and it's rather easy to see Dire getting Kills on that Lane.