Dragonus, AA and the Shanghai Shunned

The main event of the Shanghai Major starts today and I felt like going over the heroes who have yet to be picked in the tournament. As of now, there are 27(Now 24) unpicked heroes in total (excluding Riki and Arc Warden who aren't available in CM) and they are as follows:

Strength:
Axe
Clockwerk
Huskar (still think he got overnerfed)
Kunkka
Magnus
Omniknight
Pudge (May have to wait until either Leviathan or Na'Vi make it to a Major before we see some Pudka)
Timbersaw
Wraith King

Agility:
Bloodseeker
Medusa
Meepo (Will we see either N0tail or w33 bust out Meepo in the main event?)
Naga Siren (hope she stays unpicked) (EDIT: Alliance picked her against Liquid)
Phantom Assassin (MVP.Phoenix picked her up against Team Liquid)
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
Troll Warlord
Terrorblade (Surprised he hasn't seen action at Shanghai yet) (EDIT: Picked by OG in their Bo3 against Team Secret)
Venomancer

Intelligence:
Ancient Apparition
Keeper of the Light
Ogre Magi (EDIT: MVP.Phoenix picked up Magi against Team Liquid)
Skywrath Mage
Storm Spirit
Techies
Tinker

For me, the two heroes on this list that surprise me the most are Ancient Apparition and Skywrath Mage.

The first reason being is that the meta is favorable to magic damage nukers such as Zeus, Puck and Tiny, not to mention that we're seeing a fair amount magic amping items like Aether Lens and Veil of Discord, you'd think that something like Ancient Seal or the heal preventing Ice Blast would be tailor made for this meta (Not to mention that Ice Blast negates Time Walk's back track heal!). Oh and Sky has a ton of nuking power in addition to his silence/damage amper.

The second reason is the popularity of Faceless Void, whose ultimate has really good synergy with both Ice Blast and Mystic Flare. And don't forget the flip slide of things, where Ancient Seal can ruin Void's initiation (if you get the jump on him) and Ice Blast keeps Void from cheating death. Instead we're seeing Void paired with heroes like Sven and the like.

Perhaps you guys could enlighten me on why the pros aren't going for heroes like AA or Sky and point out what heroes you're surprised to see on this list. Is it because Skywrath's voice is annoying? Or do the pros know something that we don't?

I'm pretty sure it's mainly 'cause Sky is dog****.

I'm pretty sure it's because Black King Bar and Glimmer Cape exists, and they put these heroes into the dumpster.

B-but... From the Ghastly Eyrie...

Black King Bar and Glimmer Cape existed in the last tournaments as well, and AA was still a very common and valid pick. I think Fed is right and you need to look elsewhere for an explanation. Maybe something to do with the meta now favouring very strong laning stages and the all idea of setting the tempo? AA is strong in some lanes, but he offers little as a defensive support and he can't gank as eficiently as the others (think Vengeful Spirit, a trade of all cards, almost picked or banned every game). Also he usually needs an Aghs to be really impactful, and that takes some time, time corrent meta punishes.

I think kotl and SF are the most likely to be picked. I would like to see some troll picks tho. I think the hero is still very strong and fits well in a fight and push oriented meta. The combination of his ult with lycan's howl is legit.

AA, KOTL and SF were picked in the major, quite a bit even for AA.

I don't think it makes sense to just look at the main event. Too few games for it to mean anything.

Only in the qualifiers though, this list entails group stage and main event

Yeah, but what is this? Up to now, 60 games? Hardly enough to make any meaningful stats over anything else than the tier A meta picks.

If we are judging the viablity of something in the patch, looking at the Major is probably the place to look. It's the most serious event in a patch, and has all of the best teams at it. Stuff being picked or not picked here means there's some element of them that's not viable. Especially since we've had an insane amount of diversity thus far. Look at Alliance, they played 19 different heroes in the 4 group stage games.

Looking at the qualifiers is also going to far back in the history of the patch; Because this is still a patch with a lot of room to develop. The qualifiers were like the first or second major event on the patch. Which is way too soon to use it as a metric.

And since the likes of EG and OG have barely played this patch before now, there's been no real event to judge things by.